Summary: Lysine prices rose in July as many producers went into maintenance and spot markets for lysine tightened.

Lysine prices in July 2024 are as follows:

• 98.5% lysine: USD1,496.29/t (RMB10,663.33/t), up 4.12% MoM and 15.62% YoY
• 70% lysine: USD756.02/t (RMB5,387.78/t), up 0.80% MoM but down 4.32% YoY

 

Lysine prices topped in the middle of 2023, began to decline, and started to gradually recover as of Feb. 2024.

 

Monthly price changes as of July 2024:

• 98.5% lysine: hit its year-high price, only USD43.17/t (RMB307.67/t) below the peak of USD1,528.23/t (RMB10,971.00/t) in 2023
• 70% lysine: peaked in Sept. 2023 and slumped in Nov. 2023, after which it remained stable within a certain range with little volatility

 

The national average prices for lysine generally stayed steady in July 2024:

• 98.5% lysine:
• Early July: USD1,459.34/t (RMB10,400.00/t)
• Mid-July: USD1,501.44/t (RMB10,700.00/t), USD42.10/t (RMB300.00/t) more than that of early July
• 70% lysine:
• First half of July: USD761.24/t (RMB5,425.00/t)
• End of July: USD743.70/t (RMB5,300.00/t), USD17.54/t (RMB125.00/t) less than that in the first half of July

 

The following three reasons for lysine price changes in July are shown as follows:

• Cost: the reduced national average price of corn lowered production costs of lysine, so lysine prices somewhat fell
• Supply: spot goods for lysine became scarce on the market as lysine producers underwent an overhaul one by one this month, and quoted prices in some areas were even inflated
• Demand: low demand was seen in the July lysine market as some enterprises had already restocked at the end of May when lysine prices declined

Downstream market: live hogs

July had a mixed trend in live hog prices, with an overall increase of 3.97% MoM.

In early July, live hog prices began to fall after a rise. Farmers were less inclined to sell in the early stage due to the early extensive rainfalls across the country. Coupled with the traffic jam, the market's flow of live hogs reduced and processors found it difficult to make purchases. This resulted to a brief shortage that raised pig prices. After farmers' supply recovered, the market supply of live hogs returned to sufficiency because of less rainfalls and warmer temperatures in the later time. But due to poor shipments of white-striped pork (processed pork), processors were unable to purchase more live hogs and typically opposed expensive live hogs; as a result, prices stopped rising and instead decreased as farmers had to lower their prices in order to sell.

In mid-July, live hog prices continued to decline after an uptick. Supply of big pigs decreased as farmers sold lots of animals at a discount in the early stage and brought supplies forward in some regions with heavy rainfall. Moreover, because slaughterhouses had less pressure to obtain and larger supply of standard pigs due to a decreased interest in replenishing second-fattening pigs, the procurement reduced.

In late July, live hog prices still rise mildly. In terms of supply, most farmers intended to maintain their prices and sell at a higher price due to an upward trend in live hog prices. With regards to demand, slaughters had insufficient production and there was little market demand in July.